How the new kickoff rules may affect the game

I was reading this article at pro-football-reference.com and stopped for a while to muse about may really happen.

Those teams that do have good ST return men will probably be impacted the most. BUF, CHI, CLE, and SEA in mind will be most notable. These teams won't be able to change field position as easily on kick returns and thus should punt more often and total scores for their games should have a greater tendency to go under the total.

Of course, if this labor dispute continues and we have a shortened seasoned, again under the total should occur more often even if the books adjust the lines. The only teams that will be able to score int 35+ range will be the veteran teams w/a good QB, thus over the total should occur in less games than normal.

I wonder what the normal over/under will be for this upcoming season? I also wonder how many overs and unders has occurred for the past 5 seasons as well as the O/U tendency for each team.

Safety is good for the game/players. Kick offs will become more like the 25yd FG attempt. The 25yd FG I would guess is successful about 95% of the time and perhaps touchbacks to the 25yd line will be just as routine. Eventually coaches will place less emphasis on the KO and thus ST play which perhaps could lead to more practice on the offensive side or the ball, after all the team with the most points wins right?
A few teams have FG kickers who can also do kickoffs from the 35yd line and get the touchback. OAK comes to mind and I think the kicker in ARI perhaps as well (unless I'm thinking of someone else). This could help on game day with the team activating another player (instead of carrying ST player).

The average teams has 10 - 12 possessions a game, if both teams score 21pts (or 3 out of 10 possessions) then 42 will be the ending total for the game. The average total must sit somewhere in between 42 and 45 pts is what I'll guess for right now.
Now if instead of scoring a TD, you have to punt or settle for a FG, total should be lower at the end of the majority games. Thus if the total is set somewhere between 42 - 45 pts the under should occur more often the over. We'll see if this occurs or I hope to remember to check on this later on this year.

update 3/24
via NFL, the touchback has been returned to the 20yd line (instead of 25yd) and I still state we will see more punts from the returning team, and w/more 'field position punts', there will be less scoring TD's and more FG's.
Those teams w/good QB's & WR's will move the ball and continue to score TD's. The teams w/questionable QB's will only be able to score TD's perhaps 1 of 4 or 5 possessions, but more likely score FG's

So for a TD team vs a FG team, 3.5 pts won't make much of a difference, the fav will win.
A FG team vs a FG team, that .5 pts will really make a difference.
I suspect that we may see those odd numbers again of 4.5 and 5.5 spread, where depending on the team, the dog may start to bark loudly.

Season 2010 - week 21 - SuperBowl XLV - results

ATS
sides 0-1
O/U 1-0
OLyrs 0-1

notes: PIT w/o their Center M Pouncey is a bit older along the O-line (by 3 years) and thus the 0-1 record.

Game comments -
The better team won, especially in the beginning, the interceptions at the beginning of the game and the fumble at the end, leads me to say the GB D played outstanding when it counted and it appeared that Big Ben and Co. just fell apart in the 4th Q, and this could really be seen in their last gasp 2 minute drill.
For the most part PIT D played fairly well, w/both DC LeBeau and S Polamalu showing their "age", their front 7 had a really nice game, but GB QB got the ball out of his hands in a very timely manner.
GB O had a good game, but the WR's could have had a much better game. This game could have been a blow out for GB except for the dropsies by their WR's.
Watching ST, PIT K and FG were 'off', the K in the 4th Q couldn't drive the KO into the endzone. GB ST had a better game, but not their best.
All in all, the better team won, hopefully GB will again make it to the SB in the near future.

Season 2010 - week 20 - conference championship results

ATS
sides 2-0
O/U 1-1
OLyrs 0-2

finally a decent week, too bad I had no bets down, (unemployed at the moment).

Season 2010 week 21 - SuperBowl XLV

SUPER BOWL XLV Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX

02/06 6:25 PM
101 PIT 45 ***
102 GB -2.5 Over

a behemoth of a storm, brings cold, wind, snow and sleet to the area,
but the roof will be closed for this event.

I had thought of posting picks for the SB props, but since I'm a little busy
maybe next year...

Season 2010 - week 20 - Conference Championship picks

01/23 3:00 PM
303 GB -3.5 **
304 CHI 43½ OOOO

01/23 6:30 PM
305 NYJ 38½ OOOO
306 PIT -3.5 *

Season 2010 - week 19 - divisional playoffs - results

ATS
sides 1-3
O/U 1-3
OLyrs 1-3

wow, both #1 seeds lost and both #2 seeds won their games, NYJ and GB are both lucky and good, guess I rather just be lucky

interestingly enough that was NE's 3rd playoff game loss in a row...

Season 2010 - week 19 - Divisional playoffs picks

01/15 4:30 PM
109 BAL 37 *
110 PIT -3.5 UUUUUU
CBS

01/15 8:00 PM
111 GB 44 *
112 ATL -2.5 UU
FOX

01/16 1:00 PM
113 SEA 41 *
114 CHI -10 OO
FOX

01/16 4:30 PM
115 NYJ 45 U
116 NE -8.5 **
CBS

I'm projecting w/NYJ @NE game around 6TD's
and 1 - 3 FG's, so doing a 6pt tease w/Over

39 and Under 51 should be a good bet

The under w/BAL @PIT is probably the best bet