so I got the big one perfect, but I didn't do so well on prop bets. I had actually marked winners on the prop sheet, but alas I didn't follow my first instincts and on game morning I went in placed bets on losers.... sigh. I had actually pick a range of bets for exact score w/'zona & pitt, but I didn't follow the plan and I ended up a bit down for the playoffs.
Next year, I need to remember to stick to the plan, what's the plan? follow instinct...
I missed the All-Pro game due to work, and I noticed the total was 51 which seems high 'til I checked the O/U total line @donbest.com which shows a total of 66 and NFC -3, side seem'd right, but 66? seems like a college game total....
Monday, February 09, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Super Bowl XLIII - picks
02/01 6:20 PM
101 PIT -7 OVER
102 ARI 46½ *****
SUPER BOWL XLIII [NBC] @Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
I'm going w/Pittsburgh West, that's right ARIZONA, getting pts appears to be the thing to do and over the total really goes along w/what ARI & PIT are doing as far as totals..
I'd try to offer more convincing thoughts, but it just seems to be what should happen, w/ARI in the underdog role and playing it to the hilt...
101 PIT -7 OVER
102 ARI 46½ *****
SUPER BOWL XLIII [NBC] @Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
I'm going w/Pittsburgh West, that's right ARIZONA, getting pts appears to be the thing to do and over the total really goes along w/what ARI & PIT are doing as far as totals..
I'd try to offer more convincing thoughts, but it just seems to be what should happen, w/ARI in the underdog role and playing it to the hilt...
NFL 08 - Conference Championships - results
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 PHI @ARI (DO)
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 BAL @PIT (FO)
for the week:
ATS 0-4 side 0-2 total 0-2
for the playoffs:
ATS 8-12 side 4-6 total 4-6
green picks: 0-fer
what a shamble... I'm 0-fer guess it was bound to happen, when I can't watch football on weekend due to work requirements, this follows my previous pattern of when I miss the weekend games and I'll miss on my picks the following week. Watching highlights and NFL network shorten games still isn't good enough to get a sense of how the game went and if DC/OC/HC or referees make calls or don't make calls that affect the game. But yeah I stunk it up !!!!
notes: PHI had a better average gain per play, but ARI has a better average gain per pass play.Both playoff winners got the TO's and PIT turned their TO's into 10 pts. ARI took a missed FG and struck for a TD w/good field position.
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 BAL @PIT (FO)
for the week:
ATS 0-4 side 0-2 total 0-2
for the playoffs:
ATS 8-12 side 4-6 total 4-6
green picks: 0-fer
what a shamble... I'm 0-fer guess it was bound to happen, when I can't watch football on weekend due to work requirements, this follows my previous pattern of when I miss the weekend games and I'll miss on my picks the following week. Watching highlights and NFL network shorten games still isn't good enough to get a sense of how the game went and if DC/OC/HC or referees make calls or don't make calls that affect the game. But yeah I stunk it up !!!!
notes: PHI had a better average gain per play, but ARI has a better average gain per pass play.Both playoff winners got the TO's and PIT turned their TO's into 10 pts. ARI took a missed FG and struck for a TD w/good field position.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
NFL 08 - conference championships - picks
01/18 3:00 PM
313 PHI -3.5 *****
314 ARI 47½ UNDER
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (FOX)
I have a hard time reading ARI O & D or maybe I just don't believe what I'm seeing...PHI D is on par w/PIT D, but not quite BAL D
PHI O except for a blip @WAS has been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 38-67%
ARI O except for blips @NE, & vs MIN, has also been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 31-67%. The difference is PHI D has allowed scoring at no greater than 25%, while ARI has allowed 15% this last game which is really good, but this season each time their D has allowed <20%
scoring, the following game is between 33-45% so this doesn't bode well for ARI D
I expect PHI D to play very well again, keep PHI in the game and their O to solve the riddle sometime in the late 2nd Q or mid 3rd Q. Everything rides on ARI QB Warner if he plays well,
they stay close (and the over) if not, then we could see a blow out....
01/18 6:30 PM
315 BAL 33½ *****
316 PIT -6 UNDER
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (CBS)
This should be a close game so taking the pts will win ATS.
I watched MLB Ray Lewis talk about the injustice of a called TD while @home vs PIT, when the receiver had feet in the TD zone, but the ball had not crossed the plane. BAL will be playing not to let the ref's decide the game and should be ferocious on D and O.
PIT D scoring efficiency is not quite as good as BAL D in the past 7 weeks.
PIT O scoring efficiency has been much better than BAL O, but PIT this year, has not been able to keep up these scoring outbursts and so I suspect that w/BAL conservative O that this game will be an UNDER game and pts will be at a premium.
313 PHI -3.5 *****
314 ARI 47½ UNDER
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (FOX)
I have a hard time reading ARI O & D or maybe I just don't believe what I'm seeing...PHI D is on par w/PIT D, but not quite BAL D
PHI O except for a blip @WAS has been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 38-67%
ARI O except for blips @NE, & vs MIN, has also been playing exceptional, scoring at a clip of 31-67%. The difference is PHI D has allowed scoring at no greater than 25%, while ARI has allowed 15% this last game which is really good, but this season each time their D has allowed <20%
scoring, the following game is between 33-45% so this doesn't bode well for ARI D
I expect PHI D to play very well again, keep PHI in the game and their O to solve the riddle sometime in the late 2nd Q or mid 3rd Q. Everything rides on ARI QB Warner if he plays well,
they stay close (and the over) if not, then we could see a blow out....
01/18 6:30 PM
315 BAL 33½ *****
316 PIT -6 UNDER
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (CBS)
This should be a close game so taking the pts will win ATS.
I watched MLB Ray Lewis talk about the injustice of a called TD while @home vs PIT, when the receiver had feet in the TD zone, but the ball had not crossed the plane. BAL will be playing not to let the ref's decide the game and should be ferocious on D and O.
PIT D scoring efficiency is not quite as good as BAL D in the past 7 weeks.
PIT O scoring efficiency has been much better than BAL O, but PIT this year, has not been able to keep up these scoring outbursts and so I suspect that w/BAL conservative O that this game will be an UNDER game and pts will be at a premium.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
NFL 08 - division - results
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 ARI @CAR (DU)
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 SD @PIT (FO)
for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2
for the playoffs:
ATS 8-8 side 4-4 total 4-4
green picks: 2-2
ARI fooled me again, their D is playing very well and w/this upcoming home game, well.... I'm still pickin against them...
PHI @NYG, PHI converted on 3rd downs, NYG couldn't, but avg yards per pass play was 5.4 (for PHI) and NYG was 5.8, this does not bode well for PHI @ARI
also PIT avg yards per pass play was 6.3 and SD was 7.1 again not a good sign for PIT @home next week, no TO's for PIT which is good football
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 ARI @CAR (DU)
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 SD @PIT (FO)
for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2
for the playoffs:
ATS 8-8 side 4-4 total 4-4
green picks: 2-2
ARI fooled me again, their D is playing very well and w/this upcoming home game, well.... I'm still pickin against them...
PHI @NYG, PHI converted on 3rd downs, NYG couldn't, but avg yards per pass play was 5.4 (for PHI) and NYG was 5.8, this does not bode well for PHI @ARI
also PIT avg yards per pass play was 6.3 and SD was 7.1 again not a good sign for PIT @home next week, no TO's for PIT which is good football
Friday, January 09, 2009
NFL 08 - division playoffs - picks
01/10 4:30 PM
301 BAL 35 ******
302 TEN -3 UNDER
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [CBS]
BAL-RB-Rice-Probable
TEN-DT-Haynesworth-Probable, DE-Vanden Bosch-Probable, C-Mawae-OUT
w/Mawae out we'll see an OL shuffle, ....advantage BAL
01/10 8:15 PM
303 ARI 48 over
304 CAR -10 ******
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [FOX]
AZ-WR-Boldin-Questionable
I know 10 is a big number to cover, but I expect that CAR will be rested and motivated, ARI has yet to win on the road on east coast. ARI QB Warner will throw int's which will lead to TD's (yeah I'm counting on at least 2). I'm so certain w/over game could be a fav/under game due to ARI high from 1st playoff win in years... (emo high)
01/11 1:00 PM
305 PHI 40 **
306 NYG -4.5 under
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS -[FOX]
NYG-RB-Jacobs-Probable
NYG D has sustain inj's throughout yr and aren't the same as last yr, PHI QB will have time to throw, normally I pick the road team and the over, but PHI D is playing well and if NYG continues on run O strategy I expect the time to fly by....
01/11 4:45 PM
307 SD 38 *
308 PIT -6.5 UNDER
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [CBS]
SD-K-Kaeding-Probable (Groin Pull), RB-Tomlinson-Downgraded to Doubtful, WR-Jackson-Questionable (arrested for suspicion of DUI)
PIT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable
PIT OL and running game appear to be motivated, they may just cover the spread
SU picks BAL, CAR, PHI, PIT
301 BAL 35 ******
302 TEN -3 UNDER
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [CBS]
BAL-RB-Rice-Probable
TEN-DT-Haynesworth-Probable, DE-Vanden Bosch-Probable, C-Mawae-OUT
w/Mawae out we'll see an OL shuffle, ....advantage BAL
01/10 8:15 PM
303 ARI 48 over
304 CAR -10 ******
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [FOX]
AZ-WR-Boldin-Questionable
I know 10 is a big number to cover, but I expect that CAR will be rested and motivated, ARI has yet to win on the road on east coast. ARI QB Warner will throw int's which will lead to TD's (yeah I'm counting on at least 2). I'm so certain w/over game could be a fav/under game due to ARI high from 1st playoff win in years... (emo high)
01/11 1:00 PM
305 PHI 40 **
306 NYG -4.5 under
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS -[FOX]
NYG-RB-Jacobs-Probable
NYG D has sustain inj's throughout yr and aren't the same as last yr, PHI QB will have time to throw, normally I pick the road team and the over, but PHI D is playing well and if NYG continues on run O strategy I expect the time to fly by....
01/11 4:45 PM
307 SD 38 *
308 PIT -6.5 UNDER
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - [CBS]
SD-K-Kaeding-Probable (Groin Pull), RB-Tomlinson-Downgraded to Doubtful, WR-Jackson-Questionable (arrested for suspicion of DUI)
PIT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable
PIT OL and running game appear to be motivated, they may just cover the spread
SU picks BAL, CAR, PHI, PIT
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
NFL 08 - wildcard weekend - results
ATS 0-2 side 0-1 total 0-1 ATL @ARI (DO)
ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2
green picks: 0-1
comments:
ARI D played the run very well. ATL D couldn't get to ARI QB, ARI Coach Whisenhunt seems to have the answers for ATL OC Mularkey (note: they were both w/PIT earlier this decade)
SD ST played exceptional. SD D played the worst of all the weekend winners. SD O average gain per play as well as per pass was worst then IND O. Big indicator that their next game will be a LOSS.
IND for whatever reason doesn't get wins vs IND (just 1 in ? yrs)
BAL D played very very well 14pts from 5 TO's
MIA O couldn't sustain drives (2-10 on 3rd downs)
BAL O run game is their key
PHI O & D are playing very well and have the best chance of getting the road win, though D does allow the big play every now and then and their O could use more rushing yardage and yards gained per attempt ( weakest of remaining wildcard teams). PHI O average gain per play was 5.8 and average gain per pass play was 7.6 (second to ARI 6.0/8.5)
ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1
ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
for the week:
ATS 4-4 side 2-2 total 2-2
green picks: 0-1
comments:
ARI D played the run very well. ATL D couldn't get to ARI QB, ARI Coach Whisenhunt seems to have the answers for ATL OC Mularkey (note: they were both w/PIT earlier this decade)
SD ST played exceptional. SD D played the worst of all the weekend winners. SD O average gain per play as well as per pass was worst then IND O. Big indicator that their next game will be a LOSS.
IND for whatever reason doesn't get wins vs IND (just 1 in ? yrs)
BAL D played very very well 14pts from 5 TO's
MIA O couldn't sustain drives (2-10 on 3rd downs)
BAL O run game is their key
PHI O & D are playing very well and have the best chance of getting the road win, though D does allow the big play every now and then and their O could use more rushing yardage and yards gained per attempt ( weakest of remaining wildcard teams). PHI O average gain per play was 5.8 and average gain per pass play was 7.6 (second to ARI 6.0/8.5)
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