Well I was definitely fooled by the NYG D, their front 4 had an incredible game and should have won a CO-MVP at least IMHO. True QB Eli did well in 4thQ, but it was the D that kept them in the game for first 3 quarters, constantly winning that upfront battle.
In hind sight, NE will say they should have kicked that long FG 48yd and been up 10-3 going into 4th qtr.
Looking at avg gain per O play NYG had a distinct advantage (5.4 vs 4.0) over NE, and this really shows how well NYG D played as well as the age of NE D.
It's a wonder NYG O didn't score more pts.
The DU combo won in a major upset..............
maybe one day we'll get to watch perfection.
This year, a prior commitment had me in Riverside, CA and I watched the SB w/friends at Romano's, a Chicago themed Pizza restaurant w/attached bar. Nice atmosphere and I guess it was "karma" that I won a NYG keychain at halftime and knew that the game was over for NE at halftime, when they didn't score in the last 3 min of the halve and yes I didn't win any side bets.
... :-( but what a game and as I recall a wildcard team is getting to SB and winning it every 3 yrs, just a little more food for thought....
Monday, February 04, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
SBXLII thoughts
The number has moved from a high of NE -15 to NE -12, a substantial move (total from 55 to 54). I say if you like NE wait another week 'til maybe Wednesday to place your bets, from Thursday on the line may go back up as more NE begin to roll in on the fav, but up until Wednesday the line may continue to go down.
NE O should have a good game plan to counter NYG G front four, coverage schemes and blitzing, but expecting NYG O to counter NE D will be more interesting only if NYG O can actually move the ball consistently. I don't expect to NYG O to have an effective O, NE should be geared to stop run first, pass second, especially by NYG O formation. NE will most likely dare NYG QB Manning to complete deep passes (20+ yds).
NYG D will continue to contain NE 3 - 4 WR sets w/blitzes as seen in previous games, I just expect NE to pick up the blitzes much better and win by double digits
NE O should have a good game plan to counter NYG G front four, coverage schemes and blitzing, but expecting NYG O to counter NE D will be more interesting only if NYG O can actually move the ball consistently. I don't expect to NYG O to have an effective O, NE should be geared to stop run first, pass second, especially by NYG O formation. NE will most likely dare NYG QB Manning to complete deep passes (20+ yds).
NYG D will continue to contain NE 3 - 4 WR sets w/blitzes as seen in previous games, I just expect NE to pick up the blitzes much better and win by double digits
Sunday, January 20, 2008
SB XLII props
w/o even seeing propositions available for the SB,
I 'd place $ on the over for "the number of penalties" that NYG will commit.
Since NYG will most likely not play man-to-man D coverage a whole lot, NE QB Brady will have a high 3rd down completion ratio. (better than 54%).
NYG QB Manning should be about 40% on 3rd down.
Total sacks by both teams should be around 2 or 3.
If NYG gets behind in the scoring, they will have to abandon the running game and thus play into NE's covering the spread.
I suspect that NE will have more fans @SBXLII and thus have "home field" advantage.
I 'd place $ on the over for "the number of penalties" that NYG will commit.
Since NYG will most likely not play man-to-man D coverage a whole lot, NE QB Brady will have a high 3rd down completion ratio. (better than 54%).
NYG QB Manning should be about 40% on 3rd down.
Total sacks by both teams should be around 2 or 3.
If NYG gets behind in the scoring, they will have to abandon the running game and thus play into NE's covering the spread.
I suspect that NE will have more fans @SBXLII and thus have "home field" advantage.
Super Bowl XLII picks
2/3 3:20pm
101 NYG 54 over
102 NE -14 **
NYG ATS 7-1, O/U 3-5, D/F 6-2 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-7, O/U 3-5, D/F 7-1 last 8 games
By the numbers, NYG should win ATS and it'll be an Under game.
But I believe something else will happen w/2 weeks to prep for SB XLII.
NYG should be able to score another 20-21 pts, and NE will score in the 38+ pts range.
TV timeouts will contribute to NE efficiency in diagnosing NYG O and D and we could see
an explosion near the end of the 2nd qtr.
NE w/QB Brady having a poor showing will be even prepp'd more than the usual 1 wk prep.
Normally NE given more than 1 week prep time has blown out opponents this year.
Look at the 1st game of the year (@NYJ) and their game after the bye week (@BUF) which they won by 24 & 46 pts respectively. Granted these were division rivals so they were more familiar, but this also could be looked at from the opposite view as they play twice a year and should be very familiar w/each other and thus able to stop each other's offense.
NE will be much more poised for SBXLII as they have had recent trips. I think NYG will make mistakes in the 1st half that NE will capitalize on and either score or prevent a score. NYG will be forced into playing catch up and be "forced" into other mistakes.
But what do I know, I haven't picked the sides really well this playoff season, but totals have been very well.
101 NYG 54 over
102 NE -14 **
NYG ATS 7-1, O/U 3-5, D/F 6-2 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-7, O/U 3-5, D/F 7-1 last 8 games
By the numbers, NYG should win ATS and it'll be an Under game.
But I believe something else will happen w/2 weeks to prep for SB XLII.
NYG should be able to score another 20-21 pts, and NE will score in the 38+ pts range.
TV timeouts will contribute to NE efficiency in diagnosing NYG O and D and we could see
an explosion near the end of the 2nd qtr.
NE w/QB Brady having a poor showing will be even prepp'd more than the usual 1 wk prep.
Normally NE given more than 1 week prep time has blown out opponents this year.
Look at the 1st game of the year (@NYJ) and their game after the bye week (@BUF) which they won by 24 & 46 pts respectively. Granted these were division rivals so they were more familiar, but this also could be looked at from the opposite view as they play twice a year and should be very familiar w/each other and thus able to stop each other's offense.
NE will be much more poised for SBXLII as they have had recent trips. I think NYG will make mistakes in the 1st half that NE will capitalize on and either score or prevent a score. NYG will be forced into playing catch up and be "forced" into other mistakes.
But what do I know, I haven't picked the sides really well this playoff season, but totals have been very well.
Championship results
SD U ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
NYG O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
this weekend ATS 2-2 side 0-2 total 2-0
overall ATS 13-6-1 side 5-4-1 total 8-2
NE could have covered spread in 4th, but chose not to w/play calling. SD played very well, NE QB Brady had surprisingly an "off" night, which appeared to be due to SD D playing outstanding football for most of the game
you could see in NYG/GB game that there was a good chance of OT (from about 2nd qtr) and even w/o OT the game would have been an Over game.
GB O play calling was suspect, several times they were too predictable, GB had won the ST battle, but later on NYG won the ST game.
NYG O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0
this weekend ATS 2-2 side 0-2 total 2-0
overall ATS 13-6-1 side 5-4-1 total 8-2
NE could have covered spread in 4th, but chose not to w/play calling. SD played very well, NE QB Brady had surprisingly an "off" night, which appeared to be due to SD D playing outstanding football for most of the game
you could see in NYG/GB game that there was a good chance of OT (from about 2nd qtr) and even w/o OT the game would have been an Over game.
GB O play calling was suspect, several times they were too predictable, GB had won the ST battle, but later on NYG won the ST game.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
AFC-NFC Championships picks
1/20 12:00pm
303 SD 46 under
304 NE -14 *
SD super hot 8 game winning ATS streak
SD last 6 totals UOUOUO? FAV 8-1 last 9 games
SD ATS 8-0, O/U 4-4, D/F 1-7 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-6, O/U 3-4, D/F 6-1 last 7 games
1/20 12:00pm
305 NYG 41 over
306 GB -7 **
NYG ATS 6-1, O/U 2-5, D/F 5-2 last 7 games
GB ATS 7-2, O/U 8-1, D/F 1-8 last 9 games
NYG last 2 games on the road TO ratio positive
GB @home TO ratio positive
303 SD 46 under
304 NE -14 *
SD super hot 8 game winning ATS streak
SD last 6 totals UOUOUO? FAV 8-1 last 9 games
SD ATS 8-0, O/U 4-4, D/F 1-7 last 8 games
NE ATS 1-6, O/U 3-4, D/F 6-1 last 7 games
1/20 12:00pm
305 NYG 41 over
306 GB -7 **
NYG ATS 6-1, O/U 2-5, D/F 5-2 last 7 games
GB ATS 7-2, O/U 8-1, D/F 1-8 last 9 games
NYG last 2 games on the road TO ratio positive
GB @home TO ratio positive
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Division playoff results
GB O ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
JAC O ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
SD O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (the DO combo won - I was blind? SD so much heart...)
really great performance by SD w/RB LT & QB Rivers goin' out of game due to inj's
NYG U ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (an under game, QB ELI or play calling suspect in 4th qtr??)
this weekend ATS 6-2 side 3-1 total 3-1
overall ATS 11-4-1 side 5-2-1 total 6-2
Again, I'm perfect on Saturday and sucked on Sunday, though ATS I did well or you could look at it as I'm good w/first 2 games and average w/last 2 games
JAC O ATS 2-0 side 1-0 total 1-0
SD O ATS 1-1 side 0-1 total 1-0 (the DO combo won - I was blind? SD so much heart...)
really great performance by SD w/RB LT & QB Rivers goin' out of game due to inj's
NYG U ATS 1-1 side 1-0 total 0-1 (an under game, QB ELI or play calling suspect in 4th qtr??)
this weekend ATS 6-2 side 3-1 total 3-1
overall ATS 11-4-1 side 5-2-1 total 6-2
Again, I'm perfect on Saturday and sucked on Sunday, though ATS I did well or you could look at it as I'm good w/first 2 games and average w/last 2 games
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