2012 - week 15 - results

So I ended up 8-8 for both sides and totals, better than last week, but not good enough, I could've
changed a few picks prior to Sunday, but again I decided to stick with original picks

Weekend obsevations:
NYG @ATL,
NYG making mistakes and good teams take advantage, which is exactly what ATL did funny again I noticed a run TD, a pass TD and a FG, by the team in the lead, (NE has done this more than once this year for their first 3 scores)
ATL getting revenge for last year's playoff loss vs NYG could have been angle to take. ATL just seems to be running well, mixing in passes, getting NYG D off balance for the most part.

FOX switched over to GB @CHI with less than two minutes in third quarter and GB stones CHI for four downs allowing a FG on fifth down (penalty on fourth down). This game doesn't seem anymore competitive than NYG @ATL, they should've switched over to WAS @CLE (if they had the broadcast rights)

FOX also shows last 2 minutes of MIN @STL, which should be called MIN runs away with win, just say ALL DAY...

DEN @BAL, D's for both teams play fairly well. With less than two minutes left in the half DEN CB Harris interception returned for a TD was a killer, taking the air out of the BAL home crowd and team as well. DEN connection Manning to Decker works a big play for TD and BAL 2ndary appears to have given in

CBS switched over to IND @HOU a much more interesting game, nearing the end of 3rd Q, HOU has field position edge, extends lead, D plays well, gains AFC South title.

This morning, a lot of one sided games, only WAS @CLE and IND @HOU appears to be competitive, though WAS really picks it up in 2nd half and HOU dominates Q4

PIT @DAL, odd seeing so many PIT fans in DAL, you'd have thought DAL would make it a home game, by having more DAL fans. I think it fired up DAL, they seemed to play with more passion at home. PIT D is suspect w/Polamalu having to roam deeper than normal. DAL O kept getting those 8-12yd chunks easily. Looks like PIT won't make playoffs this year, too many things have to go right for them to get into playoffs.

Was NE a bit over confident with home game in DEC streak? SF took it to them it the beginning, NE made a run at SF later on in the game, but it wasn't enough. As far as ebbs & flows throughout the game, SF withstood the floods and shored it up in the end. A memorable SNF game

2012 - week 15 - picks (includes Thursday)

12/13 8:25 PM

301 CIN -4½ ***
302 PHI 45½ under

Watched PHI @TB, TB DL played very well, 2ndary ok for the most part, TB O was off, timing, route running even play calling was a bit suspect. CIN should have won last week, can't see them losing to PHI whose OL will be mashed again by an even better DL


12/16 1:00 PM
303 GB -3 *
304 CHI 42½ over

normally I'd go with the season series split, but CHI has too much roster churn as well as looking like a 20's team (moves the ball between 20's, doesn't score often enough to win). GB don't beat up themselves just have better parts that play together more consistently especially on O


12/16 1:00 PM
305 NYG 51½ ***
306 ATL -1½ UNDER

So why is ATL favored?


12/16 1:00 PM
307 TB 54 *
308 NO -3½ under

TB should be able to get the series split
NO D embarrass'd? by NYG O last week


12/16 1:00 PM
309 MIN 38½ OVER
310 STL -3 *

The winner will have playoff hopes, the loser will not


12/16 1:00 PM
311 WAS 37½ ***
312 CLE -7 OVER

WAS QB RGIII will he play? even if not, WAS is playing overall fairly well and though CLE has been on a roll lately, I think they'll fail at home to end their 3G streak


12/16 1:00 PM
313 JAC 37½ UNDER
314 MIA -7 ***

JAC most banged up team? since Nov began cutting vets depth issues @OL, RB, WR, DL, LB


12/16 1:00 PM
315 DEN -2½ **UNDER**
316 BAL 48½ *

BAL OC Cameron fired, QB coach Caldwell (xIND HC) promoted to OC
BAL will need to play keep away from perhaps the smartest QB in the game today. This should be a close
game, taking pts seems prudent, UNDER the total is much more tempting


12/16 1:00 PM
317 IND 48 OVER
318 HOU -8 ***

HOU QB Shaub tends to put up big numbers, after a poor game. IND has been on a roll, a bit lucky, not sure if HOU will cover number, but ???


12/16 4:05 PM
319 CAR 45½ *
320 SD -3 over

You'd think CAR HC Rivera who was DC @SD, would have a much better game plan on how to stop QB Rivers & Co.


12/16 4:05 PM
321 SEA -5½ ****
322 BUF 42½ UNDER

BUF among most beat up teams


12/16 4:05 PM
323 DET -6 ****
324 ARI 43½ under

ARI quit?? ARI O is sooooo bad, I'm thinking DET O will not score more than 42pts


12/16 4:25 PM
325 PIT -2 *
326 DAL 44 over

PIT what to think?
DAL emo week? letdown game, drained game?
DAL WR Bryant plays?


12/16 4:25 PM
327 KC 43½ UNDER
328 OAK -3 ***

KC WR Bowe IR OFY (their #1WR), RB Charles inj'd?
OAK RCB & FB2 cut, youth movement


12/16 8:30 PM
329 SF 46½ UNDER
330 NE -5½ *

NE plays div opponents close and blows everyone else out the door since wk06 loss to SEA unsure who to take, but on the road SF QB Kaepernick, made mistakes, he probably needs more seasoning


12/17 8:40 PM
331 NYJ 41½ **
332 TEN -1½ UNDER

TEN DC distracted by TX Tech HC opportunity?
NYJ doing the weekly keep playoff hope alive

2012 - week 14 - results

2nd week in a row of not so good results for both ATS and Totals, though ATS improved, Totals sunk below .500 for the week

Game Thoughts:
DEN - a good win, though not quite dominating as they scored more FGs than TDs

NYG ST RB/PR Wilson great game, NO Brees does fairly well, but again throws too many interceptions, NO D, not tackling well that will do them in and ST allowing big gains, the whole team is not playing without enough focus to win games

Lots of upsets,

STL @BUF, predictable, BUF had to shuffle OL (though TEN also had OL shuffle but led IND on the road for about half of the game)

CHI @MIN, I should've taken MIN I knew better with CHI D hit hard by injuries and OL having issues, just hard to trust MIN O and play calling, in prior weeks I would've called more running plays

ATL @CAR, ATL letdown? next game after winning AFC South, but more likely two starters in secondary did not play SS and RCB
Stranger things have happened, but why is CAR starting LB Hogue @RG? or is this an error?
CAR also had FIVE new starters on D @NT, @DT, @SLB, @SS and @RCB, all three levels
CAR led 23-0 in Q3 and earns the season series split!


SD @PIT, I think PIT QB Roethlisberger came back too soon from injury, SD does have job motivation, after recent news of HC & GM will be losing their jobs at the end of season, players are playing/auditioning for next season

PHI @TB, eye opener, nice QB'g by PHI Foles, ??TB?? - I did not see this, I really thought TB D would be able to contain PHI O

DAL @CIN, CIN could've won, but let DAL hang around. DAL emo win w/tragic death on Saturday a.m. of a team mate and another team mate (starting NT) in jail for intoxication manslaughter.
Note: 2nd wk in a row, a tragic death for a team mate, provides emotional lift for whole team (KC, DAL)

current line vs prior to season line

DEN @OAK 9pt change
BAL @WAS 6pt change
KC @CLE 8pt change
PHI @TB 13pt change
ARI @SEA 6.5pt change


DEN, BAL, CLE, SEA won SU and ATS
Only TB lost SU and ATS

a good sign for nfl.com

http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/12/11/you-cant-handle-the-truth-5-truths-nfl-teams-need-to-hear/

not bad, pretty good, I like it..... ha ha ha

Week 14 - GRID

Here's the GRID prior to week 14 games

Bright Green have a playoff berth
Forest Green are leading their division
Orange are current wild card entrants if the playoffs were to begin today
Blue are teams with a chance to become playoff entrant

Somehow the AFC East has 4 teams that are still relevant for the playoffs, though as you can see I don't believe in NYJ and I think they'll lose on the road to the JAC who may not have much of a running game.

CIN, WAS & TB have a good chance of getting into playoffs, should the current wild card entrants stumble

Of all the wild card entrants, clearly CHI is only in contention due to their W-L record, but their team is beat up and not playing well along their OL at this time

Of the teams out of contention, CLE, JAC & STL are rising and playing better football (as compared to the beginning of season)

2012 - week 14 - picks (includes Thursday)

Still waiting for numbers on SD @PIT game
12/7 Updated lines for SD @PIT, notable late inj's JAC WR Shorts, TEN & BUF OL "shuffle"


12/06 8:25 PM

101 DEN -10½ *
102 OAK 49½ UNDER

DEN still looking for that dominating win, OAK is the early x-mas present


12/09 1:00 PM
105 BAL 47½ under
106 WAS -2½ *

The total is the safer bet


12/09 1:00 PM
107 KC 37½ under
108 CLE -5 *

KC last week emo game, can't expect the same 2 wks in a row


12/09 1:00 PM
109 SD 41½ under
110 PIT -8 *

SD may keep game close, but PIT D will get TOs


12/09 1:00 PM
111 TEN 48½ UNDER
112 IND -5½ *

IND on a roll and @home vs TEN w/new OC


12/09 1:00 PM
113 NYJ -2½ UNDER
114 JAC 38½ **

JAC at home again, will run O be ok?
Though NYJ is in the playoff hunt I think they are already on vacation


12/09 1:00 PM
115 CHI -3 *
116 MIN 39½ OVER

CHI beat up? worn down?
MIN will need to play keep away to win, which is doubtful w/only a run game and a QB that sucks


12/09 1:00 PM
117 ATL -3½ *
118 CAR 47½ UNDER

ATL should dominate game


12/09 1:00 PM
119 PHI 47 OVER
120 TB -7 *

PHI another desperate move w/firing of DL coach


12/09 1:00 PM
121 STL 42 ***
122 BUF -3 UNDER

STL coming off big win over div rival SF
BUF C and RT out, OL shuffle

12/09 1:00 PM
123 DAL 45½ OVER
124 CIN -3 ***

DAL OL???
CIN DL+++


12/09 4:05 PM
125 MIA 39 *
126 SF -10 UNDER

Can't trust SF QB Kaepernick even in a home game


12/09 4:25 PM
127 NO 53 UNDER
128 NYG -5 *

hmmm, mixed thoughts....


12/09 4:25 PM
129 ARI 34½ UNDER
130 SEA -10½ ****

will the line go to -14?


12/09 8:30 PM
131 DET 51½ *
132 GB -7 OVER

DET should return the favor to GB and split the season series


12/10 8:40 PM
133 HOU 51½ over
134 NE -4 *

HOU 2ndary banged up, CBx3 inj'd

2012 - week 13 - results

I sucked ATS (4-11-1) this weekend and did really well on totals (9-7).

Game thoughts:

No morning game on FOX sucks (though afternoon game was PIT @BAL), watched NE @MIA real time (CBS), MIA makes mistakes, NE run D is not good or MIA run play calling is good. Notables: MIA LT Jake Long inj'd Q1. NE has some really nice O play calling in the first half, just fools D. MIA Q3 D picks up

TB played hard nosed football @DEN, they did much better than I thought they would going from sea level to mile high altitude. DEN owned TB during Q3, else the majority of game was fairly even

SNF - DAL again started slow in 1st half, you could take pts in 1st w/DAL and make some steady income. PHI did better, but not good enough to beat DAL

I thought CLE QB Weeden was not going to play and QB McCoy would start, turns out Weeden passes his concussion test later on in the week and I didn't change my pick


NYJ QB Sanchez benched, QB McElroy subs Q3 vs ARI

An emotionally charged KC gets the home win
ATL did win SU and covered ATS as well, should've just taken home team for Thursday night. NO has now 7 ints in 2 games, looks like it's time to play against NO as a favorite. When ATL airport workers egged NO bus, that was a clue as to emotions for this game. ATL did score in first half, but found it tough in 2n half. NO QB Brees loss the game more than ATL won it.


Late notable news:
KC LB Belcher commits murder-suicide (girl friend), he left behind a 3month old daughter, why? shoots himself in front of GM & HC, very radical, highly distraught, why?

late numbers posted for PIT @BAL -7 total 36½


3 blacked out games
JAC @BUF
CLE @OAK
CIN @SD

Only BUF won as the home team, JAC did come in hot, but I think the weather did them in as well as losing their RB Jennings and BUF using two RBs


current line vs prior 2 season line
CAR @KC 6pt change
CIN @SD 7pt change
PHI @DAL 10pt change

Only CIN won SU and ATS
DAL won SU, but lost ATS
CAR lost SU and ATS