2011 trade - break or make raiders?

Instead of myself breaking it down on CIN trade of QB Palmer for OAK future picks this podcast w/Bill Simmons (ESPN) and Michael Lombardi (former Raider personnel) http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7119791
will be a point of view, that the majority of pundits seem to be taking as a great win for CIN and a great loss for OAK.

I'm thinkin' along another line, that if OAK goes to the playoffs, this will be a win for OAK this season. If OAK goes to the SuperBowl in the next 2-3 years w/QB Carson Palmer then all the pundits will need to retract everything they've said about how to manage a team. There's always a constant tug -o- war between managers and personnel people. I'll side w/personnel as I believe if you don't take the chance and Palmer still has a lot of football left IMO, then you're always playing it safe. Teams that play safe too much, can be good, but they'll never be great.
OAK has some real positives. They are really a run first team, in a pass first league. Other teams are showing problems handling OAK runO. If every team is really geared to stop the pass and this really shows w/the number of starting lineups for defenses in the league w/nickel packages appearing most often this year. Advantage OAK.

The real question of "Is QB Palmer worth the future picks?" will be answered partly this season and in whole in the next few years.

We'll see, we'll see....

2011 week 06 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
STL@GB W/W
JAC@PIT W/L
PHI@WAS L/W
SF@DET W/W -DET O woes caught up w/them
CAR@ATL L/L
IND@CIN L/W -IND D w/CBs need fix'ng
BUF@NYG W/L
HOU@BAL W/W
CLE@OAK W/W
DAL@NE W/L
NO@TB L/W -upset of the week, TB reinstated Tanard Jackson played well
MIN@CHI W/L -CHI seems to be jekyl & hyde
MIA@NYJ L/L -if you can't score, you can't win - MIA

weekly 8-5/7-6
results

for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
50-37-3/43-45-2


Totals O/U 3-10 reversing the over trend? temporary?
teams coming off bye 1-3 SU/ATS (BAL / STL,WAS,MIA)
teams going into bye 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
NE & NYG win SU, lose ATS
BUF lost SU, win ATS

Noticed that as BAL wins, so does SF
and as BAL loses, SF lost as well - the tie in is w/HC's - the Harbaugh Bros

NFC East is still up for grabs

GB @DET on Thanksgiving is for the NFC North

TB is in the drivers seat for the NFC South

SF can just split NFC West games and take division

NE & BAL look well on their way to taking their division

As long as OAK gets past KC next week,
SD & OAK on Veterans Day will be for AFC West

The AFC South is a race between HOU & TEN,
HOU & TEN have two division games in a row
TEN has the advantage of a bye week to prep for games
and HOU is w/o Mario Williams.
I still like HOU, TEN lacks a true #1WR and their runO
has sputtered this year. TEN D is playing well, I don't
believe TEN O will be able to change/improve much more, advantage HOU.

2011 week 06 Sun-Mon - picks

10/16 1:00 PM
201 STL 47½ Under
202 GB -14.5 ***

10/16 1:00 PM
203 JAC 40½ *
204 PIT -12.5 over

10/16 1:00 PM
205 PHI -3 Under
206 WAS 47 *

10/16 1:00 PM
207 SF 46½ *
208 DET -4 under
think'n it'll be under the half total, so under as well for whole game.... just think'n...

10/16 1:00 PM
209 CAR 50 *
210 ATL -3.5 over

10/16 1:00 PM
211 IND 40½ **
212 CIN -6.5 OVER

10/16 1:00 PM
213 BUF 50½ *
214 NYG -3.5 under

10/16 4:05 PM
215 HOU 45 under
216 BAL -7 **

10/16 4:05 PM
217 CLE 44½ under
218 OAK -6.5 *****

10/16 4:15 PM
219 DAL 55½ **
220 NE -6.5 OVER

10/16 4:15 PM
221 NO -6.5 *
222 TB 49½ under

10/16 8:30 PM
223 MIN 41½ under
224 CHI -2 *

10/17 8:35 PM
225 MIA 42½ *
226 NYJ -6.5 over

2011 week 05 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
KC@IND W/W
ARI@MIN L/L -should've seen this one
PHI@BUF W/L
OAK@HOU L/W - I could've changed pick due to Al Davis passing, but I didn't
NO@CAR L/W
CIN@JAC W/L
TEN@PIT L/L -again, should've known better
SEA@NYG W/W
TB@SF W/L
NYJ@NE P/L
SD@DEN L/L - close game,
GB@ATL W/L
CHI@DET W/L

weekly
results 7-5-1/4-9


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
42-32-3/36-39-2

AFC South 0-4 ATS/SU this weekend
West Coast teams 4-0 (OAK, SEA, SD, SF)
[ARI & DEN aren't coastal]
Over/Under 9-4 -so many overs again.....
Road/Home 6-6-1
Favorite/Dog 6-6-1

2011 week 05 Sun-Mon - picks

10/09 1:00 PM
405 KC 38½ *
406 IND -2.5 over

10/09 1:00 PM
407 ARI 45 *
408 MIN -2.5 over

10/09 1:00 PM
409 PHI -2.5 under
410 BUF 49½ *

10/09 1:00 PM
411 OAK 48½ under
412 HOU -6 *

10/09 1:00 PM
413 NO -6.5 *
414 CAR 52 OVER

10/09 1:00 PM
415 CIN 37 ***
416 JAC -2.5 UNDER

10/09 1:00 PM
417 TEN 39½ ***
418 PIT -3.5 UNDER

10/09 1:00 PM
419 SEA 43½ *
420 NYG -10 OVER

10/09 4:05 PM
421 TB 41 under
422 SF -3 **

10/09 4:15 PM
423 NYJ 49½ *
424 NE -9 UNDER

10/09 4:15 PM
425 SD -4 UNDER
426 DEN 46 *

10/09 8:30 PM
427 GB -6 **
428 ATL 54 OVER

10/10 8:35 PM
429 CHI 47½ OVER
430 DET -6 *

2011 week 04 - results

GAME ATS/TOTAL
DET@DAL W/W
NO@JAC W/W
SF@PHI W/L
WAS@STL W/W
TEN@CLE W/L
BUF@CIN L/W - upset of the week, BUF led 17-3 @H
MIN@KC W/L
CAR@CHI L/L - unexpected CAR surprises
PIT@HOU W/w
ATL@SEA W/W
NYG@ARI W/W
MIA@SD L/L - MIA QB Henne out Q1
DEN@GB W/L
NE@OAK L/L - I thought the total was a bit high
NYJ@BAL W/W
IND@TB W/L

weekly
results 12-4/8-8


for the year:
ATS/TOTAL
35-27-2/32-30-2

a good weekend, still I can do better w/total

2011 week 04 Sun-Mon - picks

10/02 1:00 PM
207 DET 46½ ***
208 DAL -2.5 Over

10/02 1:00 PM
209 NO -7 *****
210 JAC 45 under

10/02 1:00 PM
211 SF 44 ***
212 PHI -9.5 under

10/02 1:00 PM
213 WAS -3 **
214 STL 43½ Under

10/02 1:00 PM
215 TEN 38½ ****
216 CLE PK under

10/02 1:00 PM
217 BUF -3 ****
218 CIN 43½ under

10/02 1:00 PM
219 MIN -3 OVER
220 KC 40 ****

10/02 1:00 PM
221 CAR 42½ under
222 CHI -6.5 **

10/02 1:00 PM
223 PIT 45 under
224 HOU -3.5 **

10/02 4:05 PM
225 ATL -5 over
226 SEA 39 *

10/02 4:05 PM
227 NYG -1.5 *****
228 ARI 44½ over

10/02 4:15 PM
229 MIA 44½ ***
230 SD -7 over

10/02 4:15 PM
231 DEN 46½ under
232 GB -12.5 *

10/02 4:15 PM
233 NE -6 over
234 OAK 55 ****

10/02 8:30 PM
235 NYJ 43 over
236 BAL -4 ***

10/03 8:35 PM
237 IND 40½ ***
238 TB -10 under