better late than never...

I've read about STATS LLC and decided to take a look at their site if I could find it.
googling of course, brought up other sites, but not too far down I saw this URL...

http://hosted.stats.com/nflfront.asp

I find it highly navigable, but I wonder how those espn analysts got a hold of the youngest teams stat. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5546190&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines

now this is highly interesting as the younger the team, I forsee more errors, or penalties as well as turnovers at as always the wrong time (but is their a right time for TO's??). Thus you'll have an easier time of covering the number.

The article mentions CAR, TB, JAC, MIA, HOU so if you bet against all of them, your parlay pays 20-1.

But I would modify this as:

NYG -7 (vs CAR) and Under 41 (CAR O looked inept in preseason)
CLE +3 (@TB)
DEN +2.5 (@JAC)
and Over 47 IND @HOU

why do I leave out MIA? because they are @BUF and giving up -3.5 and though have some recent roster shuffle (9 players by my count) They could well cover this number.
Both teams have very poor recent history w/their opening game, so this became a stay away game for me, though I still favor MIA, They have more youth in their D, which is acceptable to me, much tougher to have youth on O. BUF will start CJ Spiller and I wonder if he'll be kept in to block on passing downs or rotated during pass plays. If BUF is forced to rotate (due to RB inability to block) then their O becomes predictable to D and they'll be that much more likely to lose.

But I digress, STATs LLC appears to be a worthy site, now I just need to find their RSS feed...

season 2010 week 01

This week I wanted to try something different using OL age difference as a gauge. Note: these lines were the early lines from last week. I've also indicated favored side and total. For example, Thursday's game MIN @NO, two* and one U, I liked the side more than the total. Check the 1st game CAR @NYG, four * side and one U again I like the side more. Looking for totals? check the IND @HOU game and GB @PHI, both should go over the total.

JAC appears to have a decided advantage along OL, I just think DEN is a front runner team, as I recall they did win six games in a row last year, we'll see how this year goes...

09/09 8:30 PM
451 MIN 49 U
452 NO -4.5 **, -1 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
453 CAR 41 U
454 NYG -7 ****, -14 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
455 MIA -3.5 ***
456 BUF 38½ U, -1 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
457 ATL -2.5 OO, -3 OLyrs
458 PIT 38 *

09/12 1:00 PM
459 DET 43 **, -2 OLyrs
460 CHI -6 O

09/12 1:00 PM
461 CIN 44½ *
462 NE -4.5 OOO, -10 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
463 CLE 37 ***
464 TB -3 O, -8 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
465 DEN 39½ ***
466 JAC -2.5 O, -12 OLyrs

09/12 1:00 PM
467 IND -2.5 OOOO, -7 OLyrs
468 HOU 47 *

09/12 1:00 PM
469 OAK 41 *
470 TEN -6.5 UUUU, -2 OLyrs

09/12 4:15 PM
471 GB -3 *****, -11 OLyrs
472 PHI 47½ O

09/12 4:15 PM
473 SF -2.5 **
474 SEA 38 O, -9 OLyrs

09/12 4:15 PM
475 ARI -4 O, -5 OLyrs
476 STL 39 **

09/12 8:20 PM
477 DAL -4 **, -3 OLyrs
478 WAS 40½ U

09/13 7:00 PM
479 BAL 36 ***
480 NYJ -2.5 U, -0 OLyrs

09/13 10:15 PM
481 SD -5.5 **
482 KC 45 U, -5 OLyrs

Early notes - thoughts 9Sept2010

Here's what a buddy(D) 'n' I have made as our early picks:


D
MIA -3 @BUF
Over 37.5 ATL @PIT
Over 47 IND @HOU
CLE +3 @TB
NE -4.5 vs CIN

Me
DET +6.5 @CHI
GB -3 @PHI
SF -3 @SEA
BAL +2.5 @NYJ

Thurs night NFL

I'll take NO -5.5 and under 48.5
I'm unsure w/MIN O passing game, sure they can run the ball and maybe Peterson will get 'fumblitis', but w/D MLB EJ Henderson coming back from inj is one of the key players I'll be closely watching. Back to O, Favre should be able to get some nice catches w/current crop of WR's, due to in part NO D w/o Sharper and maybe even MLB Vilma, but I think it'll be stalemate for the most part and MIN O will really need to use run O to score.
If Favre gets an INT, everything favors NO, it's just not likely for Brees and Co to misfire, preseason shows they are near mid-season form (GB is the only team that appears to have more weapons).
NO D is their only weakness due to inj's, but scheme wise they are excellent and a top 5 D IMHO. I agree -5.5 maybe a bit much to give up, but I'm expecting a miscue or two by MIN O as this year they start out this season w/a much tougher schedule than last year (LY CLE, DET 1st 2 games almost like preseason for Favre and Co). So for me it came down who appears to be more ready for the season? The answer is obvious, NO and I'm thinking if true then 'will they cover a less then TD spread?' and again I'm thinking very likely.
As far as over and under total, normally on isolated games (Thursday night, Sunday night and MNF) I lean toward the over, but in this case, if MIN O is not hitting on all cylinders, they may not score 20pts, so going over 48.5 or 7 scores, could happen, but again I think not likely, it may go over 48.5pts, but 10 scores may need to occur, something like 30-20 [3TD,3FG - 2TD,2FG], but I'm thinking more likely 27-17.

Let the games begin....

NFL season package

This year I decided to indulge and purchased the package that includes pre-season as well as regular season games from nfl.com.

Good things:

• It's cheaper than Direct TV, cost comes out to approx $20/month
• You can watch games in single mode, duo, fourplex or picture in picture
• You can watch games at your discretion, this really helps me, since I'm on night shift @work
• All the games are archived, though you may need to wait 24hrs before viewing
• There's a ten second ahead as well as ten second reverse feature, which is great to rewind plays and watch the subtle movement of players
• You can turn off/on scores, not as useful for me, but for the football junkie that just wants to watch a game w/o knowing score, this is a nice touch. If scoring is on you'll see scoring update for all on going games.
• There's audio as well (comes in handy @work)
• And for the most part picture quality is excellent (HD!)

Bad things:

• A few of the games have had video/voice issues - you'll here the announcer, but the video is frozen ( I think DET market is culprit, but it could be a faulty HD(H.264) encoder or the device is just misconfigured )[ I think DET because both of their preseason games have had issues] then the video catches up, but you missed what happened.
• Some of the markets are cutting game footage, last week CHI @SD this was clearly evident and DET @PIT was another game. This week, DET @DEN game footage starts out w/score 3-0, sigh.... :-(
• NFL support states that the network, (CBS, FOX, etc) is responsible for game footage or I'd like to think the local broadcasting TV station (WWJ-TV)@DET is resposible, but there seems to be a pattern in DET, I think they need technical help in multicasting the games via IP.
• Update: Eight hours later (I went to bed) and there is new game footage from CBS for DET @DEN, and it's much, much better, (smooth like a normal broadcast) NFL support is very responsive. Yeah! (just a little slow via e-mail, but that's ok, I wonder why they would offer to cancel subscription?)

What I would like to see:

• It would be great to have an endzone view, just like the coaches tape. In this way I wouldn't be guessing as to what the safety(s) are doing (how/where are they lined up?) or just how wide are the DE's/LB's lined up, or is the NT right over the C?
• This view was available last year online when watching I believe Sunday Night Football or was it Monday Night Football? I didn't really care to watch any other view. I just wished I could zoom in closer when the action moves down the field a bit or switch to the other endzone view.

Overall, this is a great package that could use refinement as well an endzone view, after all I'm paying to watch the games, right? And football junkies like me would prefer the endzone view.

Note: I find the fourplex mode highly useful, instead of drag/drop four games at once, I prefer to stagger games. I'll watch one game, wait until commercial break or end of 1st quarter, then start 2nd game and continue on until all four views have games ongoing. This allows me to focus on games at a much better pace and make notes for myself for each game and/or team.

BTW I'm using Cox cable as ISP w/cable modem connected to Linksys wireless/wired router and I've watched games using LAN NIC as well as wireless card and it's just a really good experience with either method.

There is an adaptive bit rate feature which you can turn off, but I leave it on (default setting). The only thing I had to do besides purchase package was upgrade the Adobe Flash Player, which you'll do at the beginning, if you don't have the latest version on your browser. The nfl.com site does a browser check and will prompt you to download/install the latest player.

Now I just need a SVGA cable to connect my laptop to our TV and thus watch the games on a big screen, but that may degrade quality, unless of course I use a video scaler as well. Or another thought has occured, I wonder if my TV has or is capable of using a network adapter? I noticed TV's are being sold as internet ready, which means they have a LAN NIC or a wireless card, built within TV or sold as a separate add on. I'll need to check...

Let the regular season begin!!!

NFL coaching changes for 2010

Here's a link from Real Clear Sports on changes affecting this upcoming 2010 season.

There is an update for CHI as they've hired Rod Marinelli as DC, not much else to see, lots to speculate on...

Let's begin w/CAR, even though CAR has not changed their HC, their #1QB is in question. Their present QB's (Matt Moore, Hunter Cantwell, Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike) have a total of 5 yrs NFL experience which makes them the youngest QB's in NFL.
Luckily they are in the weakest division of QB's as only NO has anything substantial w/Drew Brees (12 yrs total, if you subtract Drew Brees, NO has only 2 yrs). ATL has 8 yrs total (w/o Matt Ryan 5 yrs) and TB has a total of 7 yrs.
I expect CAR to run a lot more, but then again opponents D's will load up to stuff the run and dare them to pass. If CAR D can't hold opponents O, we could be watching some really lopsided games. Wait this might be the formula to use against TB and ATL as well, all those teams playing NFC South will have a much easier schedule. This includes AFC North and NFC South, so if you're drafting fantasy football players you might want to grab players from those divisions as they'll have at least 3 games where offensive points will reach skyward. NO players should have a good season again.

As far as coaching changes and preseason, those teams with new coaches, especially OC & DC's (see KC, BUF, CLE, CHI, SEA) will have something to prove and they are far more likely to put in an effort that will win the game especially ATS in preseason.

SB XLIV results

my analysis was just a bit off as the dog/under combo won, not what I expected. Sadly I couldn't watch the game (heard a bit on radio on drive home and at work, but streaming kept freezing, ugh), but from reading press on websites and reviewing game stats, I'd guess NO play calling, both on O & D were the difference as stats were better for IND except in TO's and D where NO had the edge and scored points off TO's as well as the onside kick which led to a TD (and missed FG also led to TD).

I really expected an over game, but DE Freeney played (unexpected) and I expected CB Powers to be picked on by QB Brees (did this happen? enough times?). I'm just guessing, but IND played too conservatively, too predictable. NO took advantage of the lack of something new by IND O to D up against w/basics and held their cards (blitz) until the end. IND D played as well as expected I'd fault their O, but that's just from stats.

maybe later I'll watch a re-run some day as this appears to be a "classic"

SB XLIV

numbers have gone up a bit...

02/07 6:25 PM
101 New Orleans 56½
102 Indianapolis -5.5
SUPER BOWL XLIV - CBS SUN LIFE STADIUM - MIAMI, FL
IND-DE-Freeney-Questionable (torn ligament in ankle)

so what am I think'g????

it'll either be a FU (fav/under) or a DO (dog/over) that will win $$
w/FO (fav/over) next and DU (dog/under) as most likely not happening though mathematically there's a 25% chance that it can occur.

This year:
I noticed that after "bye" weeks NO scores are in the 40's - 20's range, so OVER and the DOG in this case.

With IND after "bye" weeks they tend to do the FU angle

so slant your prop bets this way as well, taking one of the two angles or both if you must hedge.

The Hilton has over 300 prop bets and they even have those that you can parlay, though they are limited and the majority are just single prop bets.

I'm leaning more toward the over because of DE Freeney inj, this should give NO line some breathing room w/double teaming of Mathis and IND will be forced to blitz w/LB's & safeties. IF QB Brees gets the time and the completions we'll definitely see an OVER game and if such is the case, the dog is the better bet.

The other side of the coin is ... what if NO has a repeat of their O performance in the championship game where TO's really helped their cause and their D comes up w/fewer TO's? Then you're really looking at IND as a fav/under combo to win the $$.
IND front 7 is not as good as MIN D, but IND secondary is at least on par if not better and I believe they are quicker, w/red zone D playing extremely well after "bye" weeks.

So where do I stand? I can't pick, because I was unable to watch Championship games due to work requirements and again I'll miss SB due to the same reasons.... sigh.
It really does help to watch and form your own opinions on how each team is faring,
the numbers suggest IND will win and cover and only NO D will be able to change the outcome. Sharper is the key, if he can get TO's from Manning & Co, they'll get the over and win the $$, if not, it's IND's to lose