NFL 09 week 01 - results

side total game
W W TEN @PIT
L L MIA @ATL
W L KC @BAL
L L PHI @CAR
L W DEN @CIN
W L MIN @CLE
L L NYJ @HOU
W W JAC @IND
W L DET @NO
W L DAL @TB
W W SF @ARI
W L WAS @NYG
L W STL @SEA
W L CHI @GB
L L BUF @NE
L W SD @OAK
9-7 6-10 results for wk01

9-7 favored side or total (bold picks)

I was doing fairly well until the SNF & MNF games, sigh....


I was suprised by...
HOU, my thinking was NYJ D had 2 key players susp'd for game, I really thought HOU O would take advantage and their D would have less reps to play

MIA, though last year they also loss every out of conference and I should have
considered this as well

PHI O gell'd earlier than I thought it would (I was giving it a few more weeks)

BAL allowed so many points

STL O was so inept (0 pts) vs SEA D

DEN was very lucky w/tipped pass for TD at end of game, so next week their luck runs out

except for STL & CHI games, div dogs won the money ATS (JAC, SF, WAS, BUF, OAK)

Did you notice the three teams that fired their OC's (KC, TB, BUF), all did much better than I thought they would, good to very good team effort, will this continue into next week?

Week 01 - '09

09/10 8:30 PM
451 TEN 35 **
452 PIT -6 UNDER
both teams will be up for this showcase game, TEN has more to prove

09/13 1:00 PM
453 MIA 43 *
454 ATL -4 over
unsure of this game, MIA was 0-4 LY playing OC(out of conference) games

09/13 1:00 PM
455 KC 36 UNDER
456 BAL -13 *******
KC-QB-Cassel-Doubtful

09/13 1:00 PM
457 PHI -1 UNDER
458 CAR 43½ *****
CAR-WR-Smith-Questionable
It's not often that CAR is a home underdog, and they have the running game to control the clock. PHI OL has not gell'd IMO thus, CAR even w/their D ?'s rate the edge


09/13 1:00 PM
459 DEN 43½ UNDER***
460 CIN -4.5 *
DEN-QBs-Orton, Simms-Questionable CIN-QB-Palmer-Probable
DEN has too much chaos, CIN may yet fall to "Hard Knocks" curse, but in this case I don't think so

09/13 1:00 PM
461 MIN -4 *****
462 CLE 40½ UNDER
MIN-QB-Favre-Probable CLE-WR-Stallworth-susp'd
CLE is trying to get any advantage it can, withholding designated starters @QB & RB,
not good for fantasy owners, but it's a weakness I've seen before. MIN has deep elite talent at many positions, spread should be -14

09/13 1:00 PM
463 NYJ 43 OVER
464 HOU -4.5 *
NYJ-DE-Ellis & LB Pace-susp'd
HOU front 7 are young and not sound, HOU O will have to get the lead and not let up on the gas all year long

09/13 1:00 PM
465 JAC 44½ ******
466 IND -7 UNDER
JAC-RB-Jones-Drew-Probable
A division game where IND is again giving up too many pts, JAC will be way UP

09/13 1:00 PM
467 DET 48½ UNDER
468 NO -13 ******
DET-QB-Stafford-Starting QB
DET-RB-Smith
NO 2xDEs SUSP'D
DET's best hope is to run the ball and not give NO QB Brees much time w/ball
maybe total is a bit high. I expect NO D to be suspect to any play on the edges

09/13 1:00 PM
469 DAL -6 *****
470 TB 39½ UNDER
TB new OC, DAL should ROMP

09/13 4:15 PM
471 SF 46½ *
472 ARI -6.5 UNDER**
A division game where I'll take dog, expecting SF to RUN and eat clock up

09/13 4:15 PM
473 WAS 37½ *
474 NYG -6.5 UNDER****
Another division game where D's are stout and O's have their ?'s

09/13 4:15 PM
475 STL 41½ ****
476 SEA -8.5 UNDER
STL-QB-Bulger-??s
STL is rebuilding, but I just don't like the youth along SEA OL and their best CB will be out of the game. Bulger was a top 5 QB, if his OL holds and create holes for RB Jackson, this could be the UPSET of the day

09/13 8:20 PM
477 CHI 46 OVER***
478 GB -3.5 ***
Bitter rivals, introduces CHI QB Cutler to the new 3-4 D of GB. GB O should have its way, it's the SNF game and thus the over, else I would have thought under

09/14 7:00 PM
479 BUF 47½ UNDER
480 NE -11 *****
BUF-RB-Lynch-susp'd
BUF, OC fired, and is woeful vs 3-4 D's and their AFC E bretheren

09/14 10:15 PM
481 SD -9 *
482 OAK 43 OVER
SD-LB-Merriman-?suspension?
Except for Merriman(distraction?), it really tough to take the home dog. I'd have to see alot more from OAK O and D, besides their HC has a distraction of his own

09 Preseason week 4

09/03 6:30 PM
101 DET 34 over*
102 BUF -3.5 *
total headin' under (-2)
BUF going up as fav (-1)

09/03 7:00 PM
103 PHI 37 *
104 NYJ -2.5 under

09/03 7:30 PM
105 NYG -3 *
106 NE 36 under

09/03 7:30 PM
107 WAS 35 under**
108 JAC -6 *
major line move to -6 (3pts)

09/03 7:30 PM
109 BAL 35½ under
110 ATL -2.5 *

09/03 7:30 PM
111 IND 36½ under**
112 CIN -3.5 *
total headin' over (+2)

09/03 8:00 PM
113 PIT 33½ *
114 CAR -3 under
total headin' under (-1.5)

09/03 8:00 PM
115 CLE 36 *
116 CHI -2.5 under*
total headin' under (-1)

09/03 8:00 PM
117 MIA 36½ under*
118 NO -3 *
total headin' under (-1)

09/03 8:00 PM
119 GB 36 under****
120 TEN -3.5 *

09/03 8:00 PM
121 KC -1 *****
122 STL 36 under
major line move to -1 (+3.5pts)

09/03 9:00 PM
123 ARI -3 *
124 DEN 36 under*
ARI going up as fav (-2)

09/03 10:00 PM
125 OAK 37 under
126 SEA -3 *
total headin' over (+1.5)
OAK going up as dog (+1)

09/04 7:00 PM
137 HOU 34 *
138 TB -3 under

09/04 8:00 PM
139 DAL 36 under**
140 MIN -3 *

09/04 10:00 PM
141 SF 37 under*
142 SD -4 *

results - Preseason wk3

Totals really killed me this week, but I guess this week balances out the past two weeks.

GB is looking very good, the early season game vs MIN should be very interesting.

Best Sleeper team: JAC, some would look to SEA but they have O-Line and pass protection issues, perhaps a more run oriented O will be better.

Bottom 5 in no particular order:
DET
CIN
KC
STL
OAK
other candidates: BUF, CLE, TB, STL, DEN, SF

09 Preseason week 3

08/27 7:00 PM
251 JAC 37½ ****
252 PHI -7 over***
PHI-RB-Westbrook?

08/27 7:30 PM
253 STL 35 *
254 CIN -2.5 UNDER*
STL-QB-Bulger-OUT, WR-Avery-OUT

CIN-QB-Palmer-OUT

08/27 8:00 PM
255 MIA 35 ***
256 TB -2.5 over
TB-WR-Bryant-OUT

08/28 8:00 PM
257 NE -3.5 **
258 WAS 37 UNDER
WAS-WR-Moss?

08/28 10:00 PM
259 GB 42 under
260 ARI -3 **
ARZ-WR-Breaston?

08/29 1:00 PM
261 IND -3 over?
262 DET 40 *
DET-WR-C. Johnson?

08/29 4:00 PM
263 NO -1.5 under
264 OAK 41½ *
NO-WR-Moore? RB-Bush?

08/29 7:30 PM
265 TEN 38½ *
266 CLE -1 UNDER

08/29 7:30 PM
267 BUF 37 OVER
268 PIT -4.5 *
BUF-WR-Owens-OUT

08/29 8:00 PM
269 BAL 34 OVER
270 CAR -3 *
BAL-WR-Clayton-OUT,WR-Mason?
CAR-RB-Stewart?
CAR- toughest Preseason opponents
NYG,MIA,BAL,PIT

08/29 8:00 PM
271 NYJ 36½ under
272 NYG -3.5 *

08/29 8:00 PM
273 SEA 39½ ***
274 KC -3 under
SEA-RB-Jones? WR-Burleson?

08/29 8:00 PM
275 SF 40 *
276 DAL -7 under
SF-QB-Smith? LB-Willis?

08/29 8:00 PM
277 SD 42½ ***
278 ATL -2.5 under*
SD-WR-Jackson?

08/30 8:00 PM
279 CHI 38 OVER*
280 DEN -2.5 *
DEN-QB-Simms? WR-Marshall?

08/31 8:00 PM
281 MIN 41 ****
282 HOU -3 under
MIN-WR-Berrian?

Buffalo Bills are they predictable?

Bills again turned upside down by 3-4 D is a highly interesting view. So what about this year?
BUF will play the same amount of 3-4 and 4-3 D's this season.
3-4's NE, NYJ, MIA twice, CLE & KC once
4-3's ATL, CAR, NO, TB,(NFC S), IND, TEN, JAC, HOU,(AFC S)

OK, so BUF has been 7-9 for the (has it been) past 3 yrs? and always lose to their AFC E rivals, but CLE? and KC? I think depending on how CLE and KC are "gell'g" I'd stick w/BUF.

As far as the 4-3 teams, the AFC S is tough w/maybe HOU and maybe JAC as possible wins. The NFC S w/ATL & NO playing well I don't see a win, if CAR D can hold it together, that'll be a really tough win and TB is the only real possibility..

So for '09, a record of 6-10 is optimistic and 7-9 is the goal, w/8-8 over their heads.

And the betting angle would be to play the BUF SU(straight up) on the money line as a dog vs (weaker)4-3 & 3-4 teams, stick to the fav's w/the stronger teams (though you'll probably be looking at least a -225 fav). The Over when playing 4-3 teams and maybe Unders w/3-4 opponents.
I haven't check'd their ATS record so I can't state a position, but BUF should be getting points for the majority of their games w/maybe the CLE, KC & TB games as fav's and the game in Toronto vs NYJ does them no favors, which I rate NYJ w/the edge (now).

Game 1 @NE, getting 11pts (Hilton), Brady's 1st game back since inj, he'll air it out, though I think he maybe rusty (preseason games appears to align w/this thought). BUF and their "no huddle" O will get them more reps, but will it be effective? I doubt it, Belichick is running a tougher camp this year, the focus is much higher this yr at the beginning of the season. BUF appears to have some OL issues. I'd have to give NE the edge in covering fairly easy. BUF only real edge is at ST where coach Bobby April may take advantage of the change in rules for only two players to form a wedge. He could have a new zone(s) alignment to help the PR, maybe a wing(s)? and if NE get's out of their lanes, who knows? But this is unlikely and if Brady & Co. get a 2 TD lead, I think they'll extend it, Edwards may press and int's/fumbles will kill drives.
BUF should be getting +17.5 then I would stop and think....

results - Preseason wk2

Just a little bit better on totals and a little worse on sides, since last week

overall record for two weeks:

sides:
15-16-1

totals:
18-13-1