8/25 picks and comments for 8/24

due to other priorities I was unable to blog my picks for Friday's games. I did watch portions of STL @OAK and TEN @BUF. I believe OAK will be a much better team this year and you could bet on over the total number of wins for the season. STL needs RB S Jackson or they could have been playing much more conservatively, so I'm not sure w/them.
BUF w/o QB Losman or should I say WR L Evans will be in a world of hurt.
TEN is improving despite the loss of veteran players during the off season, though w/their schedule I doubt if they will improve upon their SU W/L record from last year.

8/25 picks

08/25 7:00 PM
271 Det 40 will QB Kitna play?
272 Ind -5
officialy a no pick, DET and Over*

08/25 7:30 PM
273 TB -2 QB Simms to play in 3rd? "clarifying their depth chart"
274 Mia 34 "most vanilla O", 3rd QB Beck "plays well"
Under**** and MIA

08/25 8:00 PM
275 Dal -3 will they blitz or not?
276 Hou 39½ getting better
DAL** & Over

08/25 8:00 PM
277 Bal -3½
278 Was 32 UUU - beat up?
WAS (QB) Campbell Questionable
UNDER**** and WAS

08/25 8:00 PM
279 NYJ -3 QB Clemmens would start on most teams
280 NYG 37
NYG (WR) Burress OUT
NYJ** and over

08/25 8:00 PM
281 SF 37½
282 Chi -6
SF (RB) Gore will not play
CHI* and Under

08/25 9:00 PM
283 Cle 37
284 Den -6 beat up, lotsa inj's
DEN (RB) Henry OUT
DEN and under**** changed my mind CLE and over**

08/25 9:00 PM
285 Min 38
286 Sea -7 QB Hasselbeck starts into 3rd?
SEA and under***

08/25 10:00 PM
287 SD -3
288 Ari 40½ starters to play 1st half?
SD (RB) Tomlinson will not play
SD* and over***

QB Comments

this says it all: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/bucky_brooks/08/23/qb.look/index.html?eref=si_nfl

8/23 pix

08/23 8:00 PM
261 Jac -2½ QB Leftwich plays 1st half, RG Naeole out, OOOver
262 GB 39 health issues, 2nd,3rd qtrs vary combos of players - jobs in the air
FOX
pick JAC and over***


08/23 8:30 PM
263 NO 37½ starters 'til half
264 KC -1½ QB Croyle to start, hmmm game plan?
pick KC** and under

8/19-20 results

1-3 ATS

should have known BAL D is so dominant just playing under total should win some $$$

so CHI motivation as loser of SB and using SB champion IND as measuring stick, really could have been CHI key point, despite QB Grossman experiment, QB Griese did play well

for the year 30-28 ATS

8/19 & 8/20

it's really tough to pick against BAL since they are a very deep team, but here it goes.

08/19 8:00 PM
479 NYG 33½
480 Bal -4
NBC
NYG and over

08/20 8:00 PM
481 Chi 35½
482 Ind -2½
ESPN
IND and under

I know, I know, IND has no incentive and CHI wants to show they can play w/SB champs

but I'm experimenting w/leveling record for both games

8/18 results

whewwww, tough day

comments GB D wow, DEN??? DAL looks good, STL not bad at all

I went 0-fer w/NO @CIN, DEN @DAL, OAK @SF and perfect w/DET @CLE, TB @JAC, & SD @STL

ATS 9-9

for the year ATS 29-25

note:
the leveling record parlay almost hit, except for ARI

and the trend parlay almost missed all except for SD

8/18 picks

08/18 4:00 PM
461 Hou 35 XX
462 Ari -3 short handed on DL and OL, U
pick HOU and Under note: going against leveling out record trend

08/18 7:00 PM
463 Det 35 XXX QB rotation much better,
464 Cle -2½ 3-0 ATS vs DET last 3 yrs preseason O/U 1-2
pick Det and over

08/18 7:30 PM
465 NO 38
466 Cin -3½ xxx 3-0 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
pick CIN and under

08/18 7:30 PM
467 TB 35
468 Jac -4 xxx 3-0 ATS vs TB last 3 yrs preseason O/U 2-1
pick JAC and over

08/18 8:00 PM
469 Pit -1½
470 Was 33
pick PIT and over

08/18 8:00 PM
471 SD -2
472 STL 38 0-3 ATS in 2nd game of preseason last 3 years
CBS
pick SD and over

08/18 8:00 PM
473 Den 35½ last 5 as dog ATS 4-1
474 Dal -5
pick DEN and U

08/18 8:00 PM
475 Sea 35
476 GB -2½
pick GB and under, though this really should be a no pick game

08/18 10:00 PM
477 Oak 36½ 2-1 ATS vs SF last 3 year 1-2 O/U
478 SF -3½
pick OAK and under note: going against leveling out record trend

if you were to do the leveling record parlay you would pick:
462 ARI -3
463 DET +2.5
465 NO +3.5
471 SD -2
478 SF -3.5

following the trends take:
464 CLE -2.5
466 CIN -3.5
471 SD -2
473 DEN +4.5
477 OAK +3.5

fav totals:
461/462 HOU @ARI over 35.5
467/468 TB @JAC under 34 (note they meet in regular season 10/28 expect vanilla O)
469/470 PIT @WAS under 33
477/478 OAK @SF under 36.5

8/16 & 8/17 results

8/16 ATS 2-0 KC is in for a horrible year...

8/17 ATS 2-4 odd how I put an X next to TEN, but somehow I type NE ... sigh and I guess I should have picked PHI, but I ignored the 1st game back for McNabb factor.
MIN D looked great, though this is 2nd game in a row for NYJ that went over total. NYJ QB Pennington has never had the strongest of arms, but he tended to make smart decisions .... I wonder when we'll see Clemens start? midway thru season?
BUF vanilla O looks pathetic, ATL hmmm O looks like a few fixes and it could be ok.
OL's for both TEN & NE allowed too many QB pressures/sacks

I did notice... that every team (excluding Thursdays participant MIA 2-0 & KC 0-2 and NE 0-1-1) got rid of the goose egg for their ATS record they're all 1-1

as for Over/Under records, notables include CAR, NYJ 2-0, BUF, KC 0-2

for the year ATS 20-16