preseason week 4

game team spread pick
(favored side or total:bold, best bet: green)

301 CAR -3 U
302 PIT 33.5 X

303 NE 35 X
304 NYG -3.5 O

305 STL 35.5 O
306 MIA -43 X

307 BUF 35 X
308 DET -3.5 O

309 JAC 36 U
310 ATL -3.5 X

311 BAL -1 X
312 WAS 34 U

313 TB 35 U
314 HOU -5 X

315 MIN 34.5 U
316 DAL -7 X

317 CHI 33.5 X
318 CLE -3 U

319 NO -2 U
320 KC 37 X

321 DEN 36.5 X
322 ARI -3.5 O

323 OAK -1 X
324 SEA 36.5 U

343 TEN 36 O
344 GB -3 X

345 PHI 33.5 U
346 NYJ -6.5 X

347 CIN -2.5 X
348 IND 40.5 O

349 SD 35.5 U
350 SF -3.5 X

results preseason week 3 day5

game 16, 2-0, CIN -5.5

ATS
overall 17-15
favored side/total 10-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day4

game 15, 0-2 , DEN -6, - HOU D is doing well holding DEN scoreless for a 1.5 quarters. Could it be other D's will notice and make it tougher on DEN O? I'm wondering if DEN will be as good this year as Kubiak brought 5 coaches from DEN to HOU and GM Rick Smith followed. Perhaps DEN is in the beginning of the downslope?

ATS
overall 15-15
favored side/total 9-6
best bet 3-0

results preseason week 3 day3

game 7, 0-2, BUF -3.5, BUF played better than CLE in 1st half

game 8, 1-1, under 42 IND @NO* (win) - reports on IND game scheme were correct (came out after I made picks) Manning made NO D look pathetic

game 9, 1-1, over 35 WAS @NE* (win) - another game where you wonder what is WAS doing, as they don't appear to be ready for season

game 10, 2-0, DAL -6.5* (win, also best bet) - SF O ho hum don't look around cause I can't score, DAL played as expected

game 11, 0-2, under 34 TB @JAC - lotsa of scoring late, 1st half D's dominated, JAC appears to be more "error prone"

game 12, 1-1, over 37.5 ATL @TEN - this year their seems to be alot of have's and have not's guess which category ATL and TEN fall in

game 13, 2-0, KC -3.5* (win) KC played well in 1st half, STL well ... they need work

game 14, 1-1, SD -3.5*(win) - sub'd SEA QB in 2nd qtr, should have known better and looked for the over

ATS
overall 15-13
favored side/total 9-5
best bet 3-0


have's
NE, IND, DEN, SD, SEA, DAL, CIN, PIT,

have's 2nd tier
ATL, MIA, PHI, NYG, CAR, TB, JAC, ARI

in between (lean: haves+, have nots-)
BAL+, OAK-, KC-, WAS-, CHI+, MIN+, GB-, STL-

have not's
BUF, NYJ, CLE, TEN, HOU, DET, NO, SF,

results preseason week 3 day2

game 2, 0-2, CHI -3, - ARI played better than CHI, though ARI OL holding not called by refs. ARI scored TD, while CHI settled for FG's in 1st half. ARI appears to be an improved team(the NFC W just got tougher). CHI appears to be in a holding pattern, w/no real O punch or is it play calling?

game 3, 1-1, NYG -4.5* (win) whooooweee NYG has D, NYJ well ... D is better than O

game 4, 1-1, BAL +2.5 - BAL O has too many errors, MIN D is playing much better (Tampa 2 cover? I see a lot of man coverage great DL pressure). MIN needs run O production. Both D's played well in 1st qtr.

game 5, 2-0, PHI -2.5* (best bet, win, forgot to note Under play), - hhmmm hard to gauge PIT, PHI is playing more inspired (less inj's) O is highly productive (spread cover? play on early often) PHI run D though appears suspect

game 6, 2-0, OAK -3 * (win) - Raider's have a definite attitude change, D is playing better, can O sustain play? DET needs a lot of work (bet against 1st regular season game and more?)

ATS
overall 7-5
favored side/total 4-2
best bet 2-0

results preseason week 3

Game record favored side/total (notes)
game 1, 1-1, Under 36.5 (best bet) - I missed beginning of game (1st half) and tried a 2nd half bet which was correct w/total, but wrong w/side. :-(

ATS
overall 1-1
favored side/total 1-0
best bet 1-0

must read FO article

Every Play doesn't count Week 2 Football Outsiders article, consider this a primer, I agree w/many of their observations. Why not all, sadly day job(s)/sleep, keep me from watching all preseason games, though the NFL network definitely has made it easier.